How Pacific Cyclone Yagi might bring another wet spell in Delhi next week

The recent weather activity over North India has seen significant shifts. The depression that was previously active in the region has now dissipated, bringing a temporary respite from the wet conditions. However, the remnants of Cyclone Yagi are indicating resurgence, potentially intensifying into a new depression within the next 48 hours.
This development prompts a meteorological alert for East India, particularly Bengal, Jharkhand, and northern Odisha, as significant convection and rainfall are expected to escalate.
Originating in the northwest Pacific Ocean, Yagi, also known as Typhoon Yagi, transitioned into a cyclone with increasing force as it entered the Bay of Bengal. The Bay of Bengal’s warm waters are a perfect breeding ground for cyclones, providing the necessary energy to intensify such systems.
Cyclone Yagi followed a well-observed course, starting as a low-pressure area over the western Pacific, gradually gaining strength and structure before being classified as a tropical storm. As it traversed over the Philippines Sea, it picked up momentum and headed towards the Bay of Bengal, where it drew further strength from the warm sea surface temperatures.
After rains for the last few days in Delhi and nearby areas, the weather over Delhi and North India is set to stabilise, with dry air intruding at middle atmospheric levels, making the region largely unsaturated. While isolated rainfall may occur today, the weather is expected to turn dry and clear starting tomorrow, continuing through to September 16-17.
Model forecasts present three possible scenarios for the incoming depression, which is remnant of Yagi, as it progresses westward:
1. Dissipate over Madhya Pradesh: The depression could lose strength and dissipate upon reaching MP.
2. Recurvature towards Delhi: There’s a possibility the system might turn towards Delhi, potentially bringing another wet spell from September 17-20.
3. Move towards South Rajasthan: Alternatively, the depression might track southward towards Rajasthan, continuing its westward journey.
The uncertain pathway is largely due to the intrusion of dry air, which could weaken the system’s intensity.
Cyclone Yagi’s remnants exhibit strong organisation and substantial convection, leading experts to predict the possibility of this system intensifying into a depression or even a deep depression. Accordingly, a 72-hour alert has been issued for the West Bengal, Jharkhand, North Odisha, and parts of Bihar, in anticipation of heavy rainfall and associated risks.
On a related note, Asia’s most powerful typhoon this year, Yagi brought gales and heavy rain in Vietnam, killing 152 people. Thousands of people living near the swollen Red River were evacuated River as its waters flooded streets. The typhoon and subsequent landslides and floods have killed 152 people while 140 were missing, the government estimated.